Registration
- Registry ID
- IMI-2026-005
- DOI Status
- pending
- Registered
- 2026-07-19
Citation
Ritch-Frel, Jan; Observatory Science Research Group; Philips, Ed (2026). “Autocatalytic Domestication Selection: Accelerating Fitness Decline in Captive Populations and Implications for Conservation Breeding.” IMI Scholar Registry, IMI-2026-005. Published by Independent Media Institute.
Abstract
Captive breeding programs assume that fitness decline under domestication selection proceeds at a roughly constant rate per generation, allowing managers to estimate safe captive durations. Reanalysis of Araki et al.'s (2007, 2009) steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) data reveals that the decline accelerates: per-generation wild-fitness loss increases from 20% (G0→G1) to 54% (G1→G2), a 2.7× rate increase. This acceleration is predicted by Christie et al.'s (2012) finding that captive fitness and wild fitness are negatively correlated — alleles favored in captivity actively degrade wild performance. Each generation's adaptation to captive conditions deepens the mismatch with the wild environment, producing a positive feedback loop: domestication selection is autocatalytic. Inbreeding accounts for only 1–4% of the observed decline (Christie et al., 2012), ruling out genetic drift as the primary mechanism. The Biggins et al. (1998) black-footed ferret data provide an independent demonstration that niche provision depth — not genetics — drives the fitness cost: cage-reared and pen-reared ferrets from the same breeding program show 2% vs. 20% post-release survival, a 10-fold difference with genetics controlled. These findings suggest that conservation breeding protocols should minimize niche provision (enriched semi-natural rearing rather than sterile captive environments) and should plan for accelerating, not constant, fitness decline per captive generation.
Classification
- Subjects
- 10 — Life Sciences 1001 Evolutionary Biology 1003 Ecology & Conservation Biology 1005 Animal Behavior & Ethology
- Methodology
- empirical
- License
- CC BY-NC-SA 4.0
- Keywords
- conservation-biology captive-breeding domestication-selection autocatalytic fitness-decline steelhead-trout black-footed-ferret niche-provision VI-framework
Access
Declarations
- Funding
- No external funding. Research conducted independently.
- Conflicts of Interest
- The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
- Data Availability
- Reanalysis of published data from Araki et al. (2007, 2009), Christie et al. (2012), Biggins et al. (1998), Jolly et al. (2018), Tenger-Trolander et al. (2019), and Näslund et al. (2012). All source data cited in references. Statistical verification in R Core (base R stats package).