Registration

Registry ID
IMI-2026-005
DOI Status
pending
Registered
2026-07-19

Citation

Ritch-Frel, Jan; Observatory Science Research Group; Philips, Ed (2026). “Autocatalytic Domestication Selection: Accelerating Fitness Decline in Captive Populations and Implications for Conservation Breeding.” IMI Scholar Registry, IMI-2026-005. Published by Independent Media Institute.

Abstract

Captive breeding programs assume that fitness decline under domestication selection proceeds at a roughly constant rate per generation, allowing managers to estimate safe captive durations. Reanalysis of Araki et al.'s (2007, 2009) steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) data reveals that the decline accelerates: per-generation wild-fitness loss increases from 20% (G0→G1) to 54% (G1→G2), a 2.7× rate increase. This acceleration is predicted by Christie et al.'s (2012) finding that captive fitness and wild fitness are negatively correlated — alleles favored in captivity actively degrade wild performance. Each generation's adaptation to captive conditions deepens the mismatch with the wild environment, producing a positive feedback loop: domestication selection is autocatalytic. Inbreeding accounts for only 1–4% of the observed decline (Christie et al., 2012), ruling out genetic drift as the primary mechanism. The Biggins et al. (1998) black-footed ferret data provide an independent demonstration that niche provision depth — not genetics — drives the fitness cost: cage-reared and pen-reared ferrets from the same breeding program show 2% vs. 20% post-release survival, a 10-fold difference with genetics controlled. These findings suggest that conservation breeding protocols should minimize niche provision (enriched semi-natural rearing rather than sterile captive environments) and should plan for accelerating, not constant, fitness decline per captive generation.

Classification

Subjects
10 — Life Sciences 1001 Evolutionary Biology 1003 Ecology & Conservation Biology 1005 Animal Behavior & Ethology
Methodology
empirical
License
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0
Keywords
conservation-biology captive-breeding domestication-selection autocatalytic fitness-decline steelhead-trout black-footed-ferret niche-provision VI-framework

Access

Declarations

Funding
No external funding. Research conducted independently.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Data Availability
Reanalysis of published data from Araki et al. (2007, 2009), Christie et al. (2012), Biggins et al. (1998), Jolly et al. (2018), Tenger-Trolander et al. (2019), and Näslund et al. (2012). All source data cited in references. Statistical verification in R Core (base R stats package).